The DHL Global Connectedness Tracker, published in partnership with NYU Stern, provides the first systematic look at shifts in global business amidst trade policy turmoil. In the first half of 2025, global trade grew faster than in any prior semi-annual period since 2010 (excluding the pandemic recovery). While tariff increases most affected North America’s trade growth outlook, South & Central America and the Middle East & North Africa were the only regions to see their forecasts upgraded. Although US-China trade links are shrinking, the world economy is not seeing a major split into geopolitical blocs.
Despite U.S. tariffs reaching levels unseen since the 1930s, global trade remains robust. DHL and the New York University Stern School of Business have published a special update to the DHL Global Connectedness Tracker, offering the first systematic assessment of how international trade and business investment are responding to the shifting U.S. trade policy during President Trump’s second term. The report leverages over 20 million data points from more than 25 sources to provide a comprehensive overview of the evolving landscape of globalization and global trade.
Global Trade on Track to Match Previous Decade’s Growth Rate by 2029
Global trade is projected to continue growing. The DHL Global Connectedness Tracker’s composite forecast predicts an annual growth of 2.5% in global trade volumes from 2025 to 2029, roughly matching the pace of the previous decade. One reason trade is expected to grow even with increasing U.S. tariffs is that only 13% of global goods imports went to the U.S. in 2024, and only 9% of exports came from the U.S. Another factor is that most countries have not followed the U.S. in implementing broad tariff increases.
John Pearson, CEO of DHL Express, commented, “Despite all the negativity, the DHL Global Connectedness Tracker underscores the sustained strength of global trade. Trade barriers do not serve the world’s interests. However, we must never underestimate the ingenuity of buyers and sellers around the world who want to do business with one another. At DHL, we stand ready to help our customers seize the myriad trade opportunities that continue to emerge in international markets.”
Tariffs Slow, But Don’t Halt, Trade Growth
U.S. tariffs are projected to slow, but not stop, the growth in global trade. Prior to the current wave of tariff increases (in January 2025), global goods trade volume was forecast to grow at an annual rate of 3.1% during the 2025-2029 period; this has since been downgraded to 2.5%.
North America experienced the sharpest drop, with forecasts falling from 2.7% in January 2025 to just 1.5% in September. Most other regions saw smaller downward revisions.
In contrast, forecasts were upgraded for South & Central America and the Caribbean, as well as the Middle East & North Africa. Most countries in these regions face relatively small tariff increases from the U.S., and Middle East trade is expected to benefit from increased oil production and exports.
Global Trade Defied Tariff Turbulence in First Half of 2025
The DHL Global Connectedness Tracker also reveals that international trade grew faster in the first half of 2025 than in any semi-annual period since 2010 (excluding the pandemic recovery). U.S. imports surged early in 2025 as buyers pulled purchases forward ahead of tariff hikes. China fully offset a decline in exports to the U.S. with increased shipments to the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) region, and significantly boosted exports to Africa, the European Union, and other markets. Even after the U.S. front-loading wave subsided, global trade volumes remained above prior-year levels.
Business Leaders Continue to Invest in Foreign Markets
Data on international corporate investment in the first half of 2025 is mixed but underscores the general resilience of global business. There is no evidence of companies redirecting investments from foreign to domestic markets. For instance, the cross-border share of mergers and acquisitions has remained largely unchanged. However, uncertainty appears to have discouraged some cross-border investments, especially smaller deals and new investments in the second quarter of 2025.
Prof. Steven A. Altman, Director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at NYU Stern’s Center for the Future of Management, stated: “Trade and international business investment trends so far in 2025 do not support the view that globalization is going into reverse. While it would be a mistake to ignore the current policy threats to globalization, companies are generally not retreating from international markets. Trade is traversing the longest average distance on record, and geopolitical conflicts are only reshaping a small share of international activity worldwide. The latest data show companies are managing the risks and opportunities of a connected world, rather than pulling back to their home countries or regions.”
No Major Split into Geopolitical Blocs
Despite 2024 marking the highest number of active global conflicts since World War II, the DHL Global Connectedness Tracker indicates no major split into rival geopolitical country groups in the world economy. While direct U.S.-China ties continue to weaken, and Russia is largely severed from Western-aligned economies, the world as a whole has not yet significantly rerouted business relationships along geopolitical lines.
Trade Is Not Becoming More Regional
Furthermore, contrary to popular belief, the DHL Global Connectedness Tracker shows that trade is not becoming more regional. In fact, the average distance goods traveled rose to a new record of approximately 5,000 kilometers in the first half of 2025. The share of trade between major world regions hit a record low of 51%. While new foreign direct investments have become less regional, international mergers and acquisitions have remained at a stable level of regionalization.
Globalization Remains at Record Levels
The report also measures the broader phenomenon of globalization based on flows of trade, capital, information, and people. Using a scale from 0% (no flows across national borders) to 100% (borders and distance have no effect), the current global level stands at 25%. This level has barely changed since its record high in 2022.
